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Is the Labor Market Signaling a Soft Landing? | US Economy

What are the odds of achieving a soft landing? St. Louis Fed Economist Serdar Birinci, describes how economists look at labor market data to gauge the strength of the economy. Despite a still-low labor force participation rate, the steady number of hours worked is giving a signal about the U.S. economy and prospects of a soft landing amid the turbulence of rising interest rates and declining inflation. The views expressed in this video do not necessarily reflect those of the St. Louis Fed or the Federal Reserve System. Learn more: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-eco... https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-eco... https://research.stlouisfed.org/publi... 00:00 - Strength of Labor Market 00:20 - Soft Landing Indicators 01:22 - Employment During the Pandemic 02:29 - Likelihood of a Soft Landing Follow us: Twitter:   / stlouisfed   Instagram:   / stlouisfed   LinkedIn:   / stlo.  . Facebook:   / stlfed   #SoftLanding #Employment #LaborMarket #Economy Transcript: Economists are looking at the strength of the labor market to help them assess the likelihood of achieving a soft landing after the Fed's interest rate hikes. Basically, can the Fed avoid a recession while reducing inflation? We often look at the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and the ratio of job openings to unemployed individuals. These indicators are important to understand labor market outcomes of those who are jobless. However, we also closely keep track of outcomes for employed individuals. This is important because the majority of the labor force is employed. So I have looked at how hours worked has recently changed. Why should we care about hours worked? Well, if we saw a reduction in hours worked, this may imply a lower aggregate income and lower aggregate demand. And that might reduce the possibility of achieving a soft landing. Let's focus on the weekly number of hours worked per person in the U.S. economy. We call this “hours per capita.” And it's the ratio of total usual weekly hours worked to the number of individuals in the U.S. working-age population. Hours worked per person actually declined at the onset of the recession, but it has already recovered to its pre-pandemic levels. This is a sign of a strong and resilient labor market, which bodes well for a soft landing. In fact, this recent recovery in hours worked per capita was actually much faster than the recovery after the Great Recession. The strong recovery of hours per capita was driven in part by a strong recovery of the employment rate and also a strong recovery of hours per worker. At the onset of the pandemic, most of the labor market indicators declined dramatically: the employment rate, labor force participation rate, and hours worked per capita. But the number of hours worked per employee actually rose. This was because those who remain employed early in the pandemic were individuals who typically work longer hours, and also because some of these individuals were asked to work even longer. Think about teachers and nurses, for example. Hours worked per worker actually rose by about 3.5% in April 2020. By summer, it dropped back to its pre-pandemic levels. And since then it has remained steady. And that steadiness played an important role in the recovery of hours worked per capita. Similarly, the employment rate has also recovered quickly. After less than two years, it has reached to its pre-pandemic levels. To sum up, the steady hours worked per worker and the steady employment rate are indicators of a strong, resilient labor market, which is a major factor in the likelihood of achieving a soft landing for the U.S. economy. My name is Serdar Birinci. I'm an economist at the St. Louis Fed. Visit stlouisfed.org for more information.