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11. Behavioral Finance and the Role of Psychology

Financial Markets (2011) (ECON 252) Deviating from an absolute belief in the principle of rationality, Professor Shiller elaborates on human failings and foibles. Acknowledging impulses to exploit these weaknesses, he emphasizes the role of factors that keep these impulses in check, specifically the desire for praise-worthiness from Adam Smith's The Theory of Moral Sentiments. After a discourse on Personality Psychology, Professor Shiller starts a list of important topics in Behavioral Finance with Daniel Kahneman's and Amos's Tversky's Prospect Theory. The value function and the probability weighting function, as two key components of this theory, help explain certain patterns in people's everyday decision making, e.g. the existence of diamond ring insurance and airline flight insurance. An in-class experiment underscores the prevalence and importance of the concept of overconfidence. Further topics include Regret Theory, gambling behavior, cognitive dissonance, anchoring, the representativeness heuristic, and social contagion. Professor Shiller concludes the lecture with some perspectives on moral judgment in the business world, addressing shared values and integrity. 00:00 - Chapter 1: Human Failings & People's Desire for Praise-Worthiness 11:37 - Chapter 2. Personality Psychology 20:14 - Chapter 3. Prospect Theory and Its Implications for Everyday Decision Making 35:53 - Chapter 4. Regret Theory and Gambling Behavior 40:40 - Chapter 5. Overconfidence, and Related Anomalies, Opportunities for Manipulation 57:16 - Chapter 6. Cognitive Dissonance, Anchoring, Representativeness Heuristic, and Social Contagion 01:12:38 - Chapter 7. Moral Judgment in the Business World Complete course materials are available at the Yale Online website: online.yale.edu This course was recorded in Spring 2011.