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Climate Downscaling for the Adriatic Sea: Present and Future Outlook

Speaker: Vladimir Santos Da Costa – CMCC Moderator: Emanuela Clementi – CMCC Numerical models and enhanced nested downscaling techniques offer the potential to gain better insights into the impacts of climate change at regional and local scales. A comprehensive study conducted within the AdriaClim project provides a detailed exploration of the multifaceted impacts of climate change on the Adriatic Sea, from a high-resolution subregional modeling. A pivotal aspect of the study addresses the impact of projected changes in river discharge on local density stratification, dense water formation and sea level rise. Additionally, the projected decrease in river discharge leads to increased oligotrophication, which, coupled with the salinization and acidification of marine waters, raises concerns about the long-term sustainability of the Northern Adriatic food web. The dynamism of the Adriatic Sea, coupled with the evolving nature of climate change, necessitates continuous monitoring and refinement of models for heightened accuracy in future projections. With this goal in mind, the AdriaClimPlus project has just been launched, aiming to improve the representation of multi-physics and multi-scale processes and improve coupling strategies. Additionally, CMCC is involved the FLAME project within CoastPredict initiative aiming at establishing a coastal model intercomparison framework, set of tools and protocols for downscaling coastal climate modeling purpose.