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The dangers of decoupling from China…—Global Macro Update

Today I spoke with Emily de La Bruyère, a senior fellow at Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the founder of Horizon Advisory. We discussed China’s economic role in the global economic ecosystem as well as US/China great power competition. In this edition you’ll hear Emily and me discuss: • How relationships between the US and China are deteriorating and why that trend will likely continue… • Why US regulatory controls will likely prove ineffective in protecting domestic industry from Chinese encroachment… • How Taiwan’s economic dependence on China poses the greatest threat to its stability and future… • What the US and Europe ultimately must do in order to successfully decouple from China… • Why US and European private industry will eventually lose access to Chinese markets… To learn more about Emily de La Bruyère click here: www.fdd.org/team/emily-de-la-bruyère/ If you like Global Macro Update, sign up for our free weekly e-letter, which gives you a brief summary and the full transcript of the week’s video interview: https://www.mauldineconomics.com/go/J... —------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Video Time Stamps 00:00 - Introduction 00:26 - The relationship between the US and China and the need to decouple 1:26 - Introduction of Emily 1:53 - China’s ultimate global and industrial strategy 2:11 - China’s role in the world’s economic ecosystem 2:27 – Yes, this is a great power competition 2:40 - Where competition will play out 3:15 - Why US/China relations will continue to fray 3:53 - China wants global control—not global leadership 4:47 - Why fundamental mainstream analysis misunderstands Taiwan 5:25 - Rising US/China tensions over Taiwan 5:45 - Taiwan’s outsized economic dependence on China 6:26 - How Chinese industry threatens US security interests 7:03 - Why the US and Europe need to get on the same page 7:34 - Why Airbus is a microcosm of European industry in China 8:41 - The looming danger to the industrial private sector 9:23 - Why US restrictions and regulations are ultimately ineffective 9:48 - How China can still access US industry and technologies 10:21 - The real difficulty in decoupling from China quickly 11:23 - US military dependence on Chinese manufacturing 12:06 - Chinese markets aren’t a recipe for infinite growth 12:47 - There is no free lunch—European companies will lose Chinese markets 13:21 - Decoupling—the risks of inaction 14:18 - Is the CHIPS Act a good start? 15:29 - Why semiconductors are just the beginning 16:03 - The two US/China decoupling scenarios that could play out 17:24 - Chinese control over new industries and production 18:21 - The grim repercussions of inaction 18:54 - Europe hasn’t picked a side but sooner or later it will have to 19:44 - The decline of US industry 20:17 - How we can develop more reshored production without inflation 21:13 - The inevitability of an inflationary cycle 21:39 - The crucial rise of Canada, Mexico, and Europe in decoupling 22:30 - Where to get more information from Emily Want to hear more from Emily and stay up-to-date with new info on US-China decoupling and much, much more? Click here to learn more at www.forcedistancetimes.com.