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COPs, Oil Exporters, and Their Role in the Energy Transition

On April 4, AGSIW hosted a discussion on COP and the energy transition. Speakers Kate Dourian, Non-Resident Fellow, AGSIW; Contributing Editor, MEES; Fellow, Energy Institute Jim Krane, Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies, Baker Institute for Public Policy, Rice University Aisha Al-Sarihi, Non-Resident Fellow, AGSIW; Research Fellow, National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute Tobias Zumbrägel, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer, Department of Human Geography, Heidelberg University Marie van den Bosch, Visiting Scholar, AGSIW (Moderator) The debate around the involvement of big oil in climate talks is ubiquitous. Following the United Nations Climate Conference, COP28 in Dubai, in November 2023, Azerbaijan, another major fossil fuel exporter, will host COP29, followed by COP30 in Brazil, the country with the second-largest oil reserves in Latin America. Amid talks of energy transition and economic diversification, all three countries are increasing fossil fuel production. Some believe that oil producers need to be part of the solution since they have the much-needed funds to develop the technological tools – from artificial intelligence to carbon capture and storage technologies – that may help address the climate crisis and because bringing their business practices into the spotlight is the only way to hold them accountable. Others argue that the presence of big oil at the negotiation table will derail the phasing out of fossil fuels and contribute to “greenwashing.”  Are oil exporting countries hosting COP and oil executives heading the climate summit good trends? How committed are oil reliant countries to addressing the climate crisis? What is their goal in participating in climate talks? How far did COP28 and the UAE Consensus agreement signed at COP28 go in quieting concerns about oil producers’ commitment to tackling the climate crisis?   Is there a concerted effort among oil producers to limit emissions and move toward clean energy? How are oil reliant countries reconciling their need for oil revenue with the speed at which the energy transition should take place? What would the economic consequences be for them if the energy transition took place faster than expected?   agsiw.org