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Jefferies’ David Zervos on Evolution of the Fed Put and Jay Powell's Learning Curve (E150)

DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and Portfolio Manager Jeffrey Mayberry welcome back David Zervos, Chief Market Strategist for Jefferies and Head of the Global Macro Division of Leucadia Asset Management. The last time Mr. Zervos was on in May 2019, he discussed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell’s tenure in harsh terms, so this episode kicks off with what’s changed with Chair Powell, and Mr. Zervos believes he has come a long way. The group then gets into how the Fed acted in March 2020 (7:45), with Mr. Zervos noting that Fed officials think of their reaction as a success, setting up a framework for future intervention. He says areas that could draw Fed attention are private equity and commercial real estate (22:39), “two areas that have gorged on zero rates more than anybody.” Mr. Mayberry then turns the conversation back to Chair Powell and the specific way he has improved in his role (26:43). In discussing the performance improvement, Mr. Zervos notes, “I look at the evolution from what happened in ’18 and ’19, he really got caught up in the politics of the time and tried to stand his ground at a time when economically that wasn’t a very smart thing to do, and he looked kind of foolish.” The episode also includes discussion of the market’s eagerness for cuts (31:52) and whether there will be one before the election (34:36), what Mr. Zervos likes out there (38:19), the Fed framework shifting from average inflation targeting to nominal GDP targeting (45:53) and what Mr. Zervos thinks are the risks that are not being talked about (47:40). This episode was recorded May 7, 2024.