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Robert Shiller- What Bimetallism and Bitcoin can teach us about the power of narrative

Economist and academic, Robert Shiller, provides insight on narrative and its impact on judgement. He presents focus on the Bitcoin phenomenon and its relevance to Bimetallism. Watch Robert Shiller on why some things go viral:    • Why Some Things Go Viral- Robert Shil...   Learn about our Economics program: https://www.bus.miami.edu/academic-pr... Still haven’t subscribed to Miami Herbert Business School on YouTube? https://www.youtube.com/miamiherbertb... ABOUT UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI HERBERT BUSINESS SCHOOL The mission of the Miami Herbert Business School is to develop innovative ideas and principled leaders that transform global business and society at one of the best business schools in Florida. We are thought leaders that redefine business knowledge and practice in the broadest possible terms, shape business scholarship and how business is conceived, and to set the standard for business education. Learn more at https://www.bus.miami.edu/our-perspec... Follow us on: Facebook: www.fb.com/umschoolofbusiness Twitter: www.twitter.com/umiamibusiness Instagram: www.instagr.am/umiamibusiness LinkedIn: www.lnked.in/umiamibusiness ----------------------------FULL TRANSCRIPTION BELOW--------------------------- Robert J. S.: So, can I have on a show of hands here, if you would please be honest about this, is there anyone here who hasn't heard of Bitcoin? Are you really coming forward? You don't be ashamed. It's not everybody. So that's why Bitcoin is a disease, it looks like a hundred percent penetration. Fortunately, Ebola hasn't done that yet. But I have another, I won't ask for a show of hands this time, another narrative epidemic called bimetallism that occurred in the 1890s. You know what it is, George, right? Not everyone knows, but back then it was tiresome. Everybody was talking bimetallism. So, in a nutshell, what was it? It was a new kind of money. We were going to have both gold and silver coins backing. They did have silver coins, but they weren't backing the money, they weren't freely coined. And if you met someone on the street in 1890 or even worse in 1896, the peak of that epidemic, the idea was that silver coins would cause inflation and it would reduce all of our debts. Robert J. S.: The story is that one, Satoshi Nakamoto, invented Bitcoin in order to free us from the government, which is oppressing us. It's nongovernmental and the government can't stop it and people want to interview Satoshi Nakamoto and he cannot be found. So it's a mystery story and there have been Satoshi Nakamoto imposters just like they were Anastasia imposters or Dauphin imposters. It's a perennial story. People like mystery stories like that. So it will be remembered in 100 by a few people here and there. So here's the famous original epidemic model by Kermack and McKendrick, 1927, and I won't go through it here. It's a three differential equation model of an epidemic. But the basic idea from the middle equation is that an epidemic grows when the contagion rate is above the recovery rate, and there are natural forces to bring it back down even if there's no medical attention. Robert J. S.: And the other thing is that there are both big and small epidemics. Some of them never infect more than 5% of the population and they just go away. And there are also long and short epidemic. Some of them lasting weeks and some of them last years. It all depends on the two parameters, the contagion rate C and the recovery rate R. Here's a simulated epidemic using the Kermack McKendrick Model. So this is getting close to 100 years old too. There's a whole field of mathematical epidemiology and there's lots of variations on this and it hasn't made that big a penetration of economics yet. But I'm looking for these hump shaped curves like in the vertical spike. The three things here are the number of susceptibles, that's the dotted line, the number of infected, that's the bar chart, and the last thing is the number of recovered. Robert J. S.: Now, the economists don't think narratives matter, and we shouldn't even listen to them. In fact, Milton Friedman, in his book, Essays In Positive Economics, says very clearly, "Don't ask people why they made some economic decisions. They can't explain it. It's intuitive." They use the example of an expert billiards player. Can you ask a billiards player to tell you why he did the shot that way? He can't. You have to use theoretical physics to explain what he does and do mathematical modeling. Well, I'm a little bit uncomfortable. That has reeled in something. The point is that these epidemics do have effects on people's judgment as shown by a lot of controlled experiments in fields outside of economics.