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A Conversation With Ali Alfoneh: Does Iran’s Presidential Election Matter?

On July 11, AGSIW hosted a discussion on Iran's presidential election. Speakers Ali Alfoneh, Senior Fellow, AGSIW Hussein Ibish, Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW (Moderator) In the second of a new series of one-on-one conversations with AGSIW’s Hussein Ibish, noted Iran scholar and AGSIW Senior Fellow Ali Alfoneh discussed the importance and implications of Iran’s upcoming presidential runoff in its broader context. Hard-line former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is set to face reformist Masoud Pezeshkian, a heart surgeon, on July 5 for a runoff presidential election in a contest to replace Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed in a helicopter crash in May. Only 39.9% of the Iranian voting public cast a ballot in the first round, and, of over 24.5 million votes, more than 1 million ballots were later rejected, with many Iranians unconvinced that their vote even matters. Public discontent is simmering over the decline of the Iranian economy and rampant crackdowns on dissent, including the mass protests sparked by the 2022 killing of Mahsa Amini. Tensions with the West remain high as Israel’s war in Gaza continues and its confrontation with Hezbollah escalates. Meanwhile, Iran is enriching uranium closer than ever to weapons-grade levels. How important is voter turnout as a sign of regime legitimacy? And how will the election results affect succession planning for the post of the supreme leader? Will the results have any impact on Iran’s foreign policy, particularly its backing of an “axis of resistance?” How will relations with the Gulf Arab states be affected? And will a new president usher in new rounds of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program? agsiw.org